Downward revenue projections from state comptroller’s office

While New Yorkers wait for an overdue mid-year financial plan from the Hochul administration, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli has released an updated review of the state’s fiscal situation.

The “Quick Start” report projects that the state will end the current fiscal year with “all funds tax receipts” that are $2.6 billion above what was projected this summer by the state Division of the Budget, but $13.7 billion below what the DOB projected for the next fiscal year and $14.1 billion lower than what was expected for the year after that. The all fund tax receipts include “tax receipts, miscellaneous receipts and federal grants.”

“The potential impact of these estimates on financial plan gaps is unclear due to the particular complexities of forecasting in the current environment,” reads the report, which is available below.

“In (state fiscal year) 2023-24, tax collections are projected to decrease by 4.7 percent. This decline reflects expectations of an economy in recession, as well as continued volatility in the equities markets, which are not expected to return to prior highs,” reads the analysis. “For (state fiscal year) 2024-25, tax collections are projected to grow by 2.5 percent, as the economy is expected to recover, but the increase is tempered by the expiration of the higher corporate franchise tax rates at the end of 2023.”

State law requires the governor’s office, comptroller’s office, state Senate and state Assembly to produce an analysis of state receipts and state disbursements for the current and upcoming fiscal by November 5. It’s not clear if the other entities covered by the quick start requirements produced a budget analysis.

Report on Estimated Receipts and Disbursements by Capitol Pressroom on Scribd